Singapore Toto

We always see long queues on Singapore Pools site, esp. when there are big draws coming. Found the below sites showing the probability of our winnings.

http://www.intmath.com/Counting-probability/Singapore-toto.php

Pretty interesting, for every 6 numbers ($0.50), there is over 8 million chance of striking group 1 price. Looking at these numbers, the payout that SG pools give out are not really that attractive after all.

Baccarat Odds

As previously mentioned, baccarat is one casino game that casino has a pretty low edge against players. For a "fair" baccarat, banker will win 50.68% of the time, while player will win 49.32% of the time. We actually have a slight advantage in placing our bet in banker. This is where casino implement a commission on banker's bets, usually 5%. With this 5% commission, and a payout of 1 to 8 for tie games, the game odds will become as below:

	House Edge
Player	1.36%
Banker	1.17%
Tie	14.40%

To the best of my knowledge, there are no real way of winning in baccarat. Casino often provide papers and pens for players to track the number of banker/ player wins, but that actually has no evidence of improving your chance of winning. Put it this way, if it does, then there is no reason for houses to offer the papers and pens. However, as seen above, house has actually a high edge for tie bets, so do not bet on tie.

Baccarat

Baccarat is one of the oldest and most popular games in casino. It is actually a very simple game, as simple betting on tossing a coin.

- Baccarat are usually played with 6 to 8 decks of cards.
- Card are given point values, with Ace =1, 2 - 9 = pip value, 10 and pictures = 0
- At the start of a new shoe, the dealer will turn one card to determine the number of cards being burned
- The card will be placed 16 cards below from the bottom of all cards, and when the cut cards appears, the dealer will play one more hand and start a new shoe.
- The game begins with all players betting on "player", "banker" or "tie". At some casino, you may also bet on "player" or "banker" pair.
- After all bets are placed, the dealer will draw 2 cards each to the player and banker. The score of the hand is the right digit of the total of the cards. E.g. if player draw 7 and 9, the summation of these 2 cards is 16, and so the score is 16.
- A 3rd card may be draw either to player or banker depending on the following rules:
- If the player or banker has a score of 8 or 9, they will stand.
- If the player score is 5 or less, then the player hits, otherwise stand.
- If the player stands, then the banker hits on a score of 5 or less. If the player does hit, then use the below chart to determine if the banker hit or stand.

Baccarat Drawing Rules
Banker's	Players 3rd Card
Score	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
7	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S
6	S	S	S	S	S	S	H	H	S	S
5	S	S	S	S	H	H	H	H	S	S
4	S	S	H	H	H	H	H	H	S	S
3	H	H	H	H	H	H	H	H	S	H
2	H	H	H	H	H	H	H	H	H	H
1	H	H	H	H	H	H	H	H	H	H
0	H	H	H	H	H	H	H	H	H	H

- The score of the player and banker are compared with. The winner will be the one with the greater score. Winning bets on bankers usually less 5% commission, winning bets on players is 1 to 1, while winning bets on tie is usually 8 to 1. In the event of a tie, players and bankers bet will be pushed.

The rules may sound complicated, but on players perspective, we don't really need to do any of the counts, we just need to choose either player, banker or tie, while the rest of it, the dealer will be the one executing on the rules of the games. If you are unsure of the game, then just choose a more crowded table, so that if the dealer make executes something out of the rules, other players will most likely sound up.

I will be posting on the probability of players, bankers and tie in my next posts, and how much the casino has an edge over player in terms of this game.

Quotes from Movie 21

"We are not gambling, we are following a specific set of rules and playing a system... and sometimes, people lose control, they give in to their emotion."

This quote should be nothing new for traders/ gamblers following a system. But we tend to forget especially after consecutive stops being triggered. This just to remind everyone (including myself) to put emotions aside in trading, investing or gambling (whatever you call it).

BlackJack Basic Strategy

BlackJack Basic Strategy provides the player with a matrix that indicates the options to hit, stay, double or surrender, base on the highest probability to the edge of the player. A copy of a Master chart base on multiple deck as per below:

Some summary of the basic strategy as below:

- Always double on eleven, unless you are against an ace.
- Always double on ten, unless you are against a ten and ace.
- Double a nine if the dealer shows 3 to 6.
- Always hit on a card with 11 or less - there is no way you can go bust with that.
- Always stand on a hard 17 and above - it is very unlikely that you will hit anything better.
- Always split on double 8 and double Ace.
- Surrender if you have 15 against dealer 10. Hit if surrender is not allowed.

A common misinterpretation of the basic strategy is that it only tells you what to do on the first hit. In fact, every decision should be evaluated according to the chart. If you have a soft 13 against the dealer 9, the chart indicates a hit. If you draw a 10, you have got a hard 13 against dealer 9. Check the chart again, you are supposed to hit on hard 13 against dealer 9. And when you draw a 4, you got 17. Always stand on hard 17.

It is important to note that the strategy above is based on odds and probabilities. It does not guarantee win. There will be times that the strategy seems to provide consistent loses, giving example, if you stand on 14 where dealer is 6, you may be tempted to dismiss the strategy. However, instances like this occur, and the likelihood will bear itself out overtime. So, it is important to consistently follow the basic strategy. Very often, you will get "blame" in blackjack table when you made a decision that end up with the dealer drawing a 21. Do not let your decision affected by this and just strictly follow the basic strategy. Please note that though the basic strategy improves your edge over the house, but not till the extend that you have an edge over the house. Casino will still have an edge of less than 1% when you simply following the basic strategy rules.

Blackjack

Blackjack is one of the traditional casino games. As we all know, in all casino games, the house is sure to have an edge over players. That is where they earn their income. Here, I assume that we are familiar with how the game works.

In general, for blackjack, the house have an edge over players by around 7 to 8 %. The house get the advantage basically by being the last to act. By acting last, every player has made their decision and could very possibly go bust before the dealer reaches his turn.

As far as I am aware, blackjack is one casino game where it is "possible" to turn the odds against the house. However, if we manage to have a better odds against casinos, we will most likely be banned by casino. To what I understand, this can be done by card counting, but the implementation of shuffling machines is meant to counter card counting, hence making it quite impossible to beat the casinos. I have a friend who describe the shuffling machines as "sorting" the cards instead of "shuffling" the cards. Nonetheless, if we apply the basic strategy in blackjack, we can turn the casino's edge from 7 - 8 % to merely 0.5%!